Written by Amaury de Barros Conti, Partner | Vice President Investments
WHAT MOVED MARKET LAST WEEK
Markets navigated another week shaped by geopolitics, inflation concerns, and shifting expectations for monetary policy. Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran contributed to higher oil prices and raised concerns that the recent improvement in inflation trends could face new headwinds. Despite these challenges, U.S. equities remained resilient, supported in part by strength in artificial intelligence and semiconductor-related stocks, while investors continued to prepare for the start of second-quarter earnings season. Overall, economic data remained consistent with a slowing but still-expanding economy, reinforcing the view that fundamentals appeared broadly supportive even as volatility risks increased.
U.S. equities finished the week mixed but generally higher. The Nasdaq Composite led gains, advancing 1.8%, while the S&P 500 added 1.3%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.4% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.5%, as per Bloomberg data.
Source: Bloomberg Finance as of July 10, 2026.
- Investor sentiment was heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East. As reported by the Wall Street Journal on July 8, 2026, President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire effectively over following renewed military exchanges and the reimposition of U.S. sanctions. While diplomatic discussions continued, markets appeared to price in greater geopolitical risk. Brent crude rose roughly 5% during the week to approximately $76 per barrel, according to Bloomberg data as of July 10, 2026, reversing some of the recent decline in energy prices and contributing to concerns about the inflation outlook.
- Economic data released during the week generally pointed to continued expansion, albeit at a more moderate pace. The ISM Services Index registered 54.0 in June, matching expectations and marking a 24th consecutive month of growth. Encouragingly, the employment component returned to expansion territory after three months of contraction, suggesting service-sector labor demand remained relatively resilient.
- Federal Reserve minutes revealed an increasingly divided committee. While some policymakers viewed a rate increase as appropriate at the June meeting, others supported a more patient approach. The discussion reinforced the view that future policy decisions are expected to remain highly dependent on incoming inflation and labor-market data.
LOOKING AHEAD
- Second-quarter earnings season officially begins with reports from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Investors will be watching bank earnings for clues on credit quality, loan growth, and consumer health.
- Technology investors will focus on results from Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, and Netflix, which should provide additional insight into AI-related demand trends and digital consumer spending.
- Meanwhile, June CPI and PPI reports are expected to provide an updated read on inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting later this month. Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony is anticipated to also be closely scrutinized for indications regarding the future path of interest rates.
Amaury de Barros Conti
Partner | Vice President Investments
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